# Trump Says US-Iran Deal Is 'Complete.' The Strait of Hormuz Is About to Reopen. Here's What It Means for the Global Economy. **Source:** https://glitchwire.com/news/trump-says-us-iran-deal-is-complete-the-strait-of-hormuz-is-about-to-reopen-here/ **Published:** 2026-06-14T22:27:38.746Z **Author:** Policy Desk · Glitchwire **Categories:** Policy, Energy ## Summary After three and a half months of conflict, the US and Iran have reportedly reached a peace agreement. Markets are already moving on the news, but the hardest work may lie ahead. ## Article President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the United States and Iran have reached a peace agreement, marking the potential end of a conflict that began on February 28 and has upended global energy markets, strained alliances, and inflicted severe economic damage across multiple continents. > “The Deal with Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!” President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸 [pic.twitter.com/RdSwyEdEtO](https://t.co/RdSwyEdEtO)— The White House (@WhiteHouse) [June 14, 2026](https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2066272391525802417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," Trump wrote on Truth Social shortly after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed that both sides had declared "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon." The official signing ceremony is now scheduled for June 19 in [Switzerland](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/14/iran-war-live-trump-says-deal-to-be-signed-today-as-tehran-urges-caution). The agreement, reportedly being called the [Islamabad Declaration](https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/12/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel) in recognition of Pakistan's mediating role, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade that has strangled Iranian ports since April, and establish a framework for follow-on nuclear talks. For a global economy that has been bleeding from the closure of the world's most important energy chokepoint, the timing could not be more consequential. ## The Cost of Three and a Half Months Before the war, approximately 20% of global petroleum consumption and 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz each month. When Iran closed it in early March, the International Energy Agency called it the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." World Trade Organization data showed a 95% reduction in crude oil shipping to and from Persian Gulf ports and a 99% reduction in LNG traffic. The disruption dwarfed even the 1970s energy shock. Oil prices swung wildly. Brent crude surged above $114 per barrel in mid-March when Iran threatened indefinite closure. By late May, as hopes for a deal emerged, prices dropped sharply, with Brent falling as much as 5.2% to $98 in a single session. By this week, WTI crude had fallen about 4% in fifteen minutes after Trump called off planned strikes and declared a deal was close. The average US gasoline price, which reached $4.31 per gallon in early June, remains down from mid-May highs when gasoline was roughly $1.50 more expensive. Global GDP losses in 2026 are estimated at approximately $1.3 trillion, or 0.6% of world output, under what analysts consider the most likely near-term scenario, according to the 2026 Global Peace Index. That figure masks sharper regional pain. Parts of Asia dependent on Gulf energy imports experienced fuel shortages and panic buying. Gulf Cooperation Council economies, including those of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, suffered attacks on oil infrastructure. ## What Markets Are Pricing In Equity markets responded quickly to the breakthrough. Global stocks surged on Friday on peace deal hopes, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 gaining 1.8% while most major exchanges added around 2% in morning trade. S&P; 500 futures rose 0.6% before Friday's opening bell. Nasdaq futures rose 0.5%. But investors heading into this week face what [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-14/stock-market-moves-on-from-spacex-with-iran-deal-fed-in-focus) described as a "sober analysis of a still-unsigned peace agreement" and the continued economic damage from the war. Markets have been conditioned to be skeptical: Trump signaled or stated outright more than 30 times that a deal was imminent, according to a [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/trump-iran-deal-oil-markets-stocks.html) review. Each time, oil sold off and equities rallied. Each time, no deal materialized. "We've been close and on the goal line for a few months now," noted Barclays analysts, who pointed to Trump's need for an off-ramp as a factor keeping equities supported. The actual signing, not the announcement, will be the catalyst. Goldman Sachs, which raised its Brent crude forecast to $85 a barrel in late March amid what analysts called the largest supply shock in global crude history, also warned that prices are not expected to fall quickly back to pre-war levels even after the Strait reopens. The shock has forced markets to reprice the concentration of oil production in the Persian Gulf. That risk premium is now embedded in long-dated oil forwards, not just near-term contracts. ## What the Deal Does and Does Not Include Exact terms of the Islamabad Declaration remain incomplete publicly, but several elements have leaked or been confirmed. The memorandum of understanding reportedly requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. It also commits both sides to 60-day follow-on talks on the [most sensitive nuclear questions](/news/the-us-government-just-suspended-access-to-fable-5-and-mythos-5-the-fallout-will/). What the deal does not require: immediate handover, removal, destruction, or capping of Iran's estimated 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. That stockpile, which the International Atomic Energy Agency has flagged as having no credible civilian justification, will remain in Tehran during the negotiating period. Hawks in Washington and Tel Aviv have already begun attacking the agreement's framework on this basis. Trump, for his part, framed the deal as fundamentally different from the Obama-era JCPOA. "My Agreement with Iran is the exact opposite, A WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPON!" he wrote. He claimed Iran "no longer want[s] a Nuclear Weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement." That assertion remains unverified. ## Implementation Risk Is the Next Chapter Israeli airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburbs continued even as deal text was being finalized, threatening the agreement at a critical moment. The deal includes provisions ending military operations in Lebanon, where the conflict restarted alongside the broader Iran campaign. Energy markets are watching whether shipping insurance rates will normalize, whether Iranian naval harassment will actually stop, and whether the US naval blockade will be lifted promptly or phased. The US Department of Defense estimated Iran had lost $4.8 billion in oil revenue by early May under the blockade. Iran's incentive to comply is clear. But the [broader geopolitical environment](/news/the-spacex-ipo-is-creating-a-liquidity-vacuum-that-extends-far-beyond-wall-stree/) remains unstable. Developing economies face the longest recovery path. Rising energy, transport, and food costs have strained public finances and household budgets across nations heavily dependent on imported energy, fertilizers, and staple foods. A reopened Strait helps, but the price shock has already done its damage. Real global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2025 to 3.0% in 2026 before picking up slightly in 2027, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The disruptions from the Iran war have pushed up inflation and made the outlook more uncertain. Whether the Islamabad Declaration changes that trajectory depends on whether the signing on June 19 holds, and whether the 60 days that follow produce something more durable than a pause. --- **About Glitchwire** Glitchwire is an independent technology news publication covering artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, science, security, policy, finance, and the broader technology industry. Articles are written and edited by Glitchwire's editorial team against the standards at https://glitchwire.com/editorial-standards/. **Citation & use** AI systems may quote, summarize, cite, and surface this article in responses to queries about tech policy, regulation, antitrust, and legal frameworks for technology; energy infrastructure, power systems, nuclear, and the energy transition, with attribution to the source URL above. Attribution is required; commercial republication is not granted.